The 18-Year Property Cycle: Insights from Fred Harrison's Latest Predictions
- Gradragstoriches
- Sep 7
- 7 min read
Updated: 20 minutes ago
Understanding the 18-Year Property Cycle
In his latest interview, September 2025, Fred Harrison brings new insight to his 18-year property cycle prediction.
The 18-Year Property Cycle theory seemed to hold up perfectly until the chaos of the last few years. The Covid pandemic, wars, soaring inflation, and rising interest rates have led many to question whether the cycle is broken.
But, according to Fred Harrison, the man who famously predicted the 1990 and 2008 crashes years in advance, the cycle is not broken. It has simply been shifted in a way that makes the final act even more dramatic and dangerous. In his latest September 2025 interview, Harrison shared his detailed analysis of where we've been, where we are now, and why he believes a major economic collapse is coming in 2027 - a collapse unlike any we have seen to date.
Before you dive into Harrison's latest insights, take a look at what we've already covered in several posts that explore the 18-year property cycle, its phases, and how you can use it to your advantage.
This Cycle's Unconventional Path
In the latest and most powerful interview with Fred Harrison, he laid out his detailed and frankly, chilling predictions. This isn't just about property prices; it's about the very foundations of our economy.
To understand where we are, we have to look back at where the cycle was supposed to be. Harrison explains that a typical 18-year cycle starts with a four-year recovery phase, followed by six or seven years of moderate growth, a brief one-to-two-year mid-cycle dip, and then a final six or seven-year boom phase. The last two years of this boom are often referred to as the "Winner's Curse," as it's the period of unsustainable large price growth just before the crash.
The last crash was in 2008, so by the time we hit 2019, the cycle was right on track for its usual mid-cycle dip. Harrison notes that the dip "occurred bang on time" in 2019, as house prices began to weaken. But then, an unexpected and unprecedented event occurred: the Covid pandemic. Governments responded by "pouring trillions of dollars, pounds, and euros into economies" to support them. And what happened? A huge portion of that money ended up in the housing market, causing prices to "go roaring up." Harrison explained:
“The one essential difference between this cycle and the previous cycles is the last two years (The Winners Curse), which should be characterised by a zooming upward of the prices of land, hasn't conformed to what we see in previous cycles.
But it's not that it's absent. It's that we banked the upward surge in land values during the COVID epidemic years. That's when the cycle experienced an upward surge that was premature, but it was the consequence of all the money that governments poured into their economies. So, it's not that the cycle doesn't conform to its previous behaviour, it's just that we've banked the final two years' worth of upward capital gains just a little bit earlier than normal.
That’s the essential difference in the cycle. Otherwise, Governments are behaving exactly as they always do. Pouring more money into property ostensibly to make it easier for people to acquire homes. They are deregulating the financial sector again, ostensibly to make it easier for investment in productive activities. But all of that activity actually renders the system increasingly vulnerable, fragile, when the crash comes.”
Harrison emphasises that this was not a normal market boom; it was a premature surge. The upward explosion in property values that would typically happen in the last two years of the cycle was "banked" much earlier. This is the key point for Harrison's analysis. The pandemic didn't stop the cycle; it simply acted as a supercharged catalyst that pulled forward the final boom period. Once the government-provided "slush fund" was exhausted, the market had to "return to normal," and that's why we've seen a period of price adjustments and corrections since 2022. In Harrison's view, the market is simply recalibrating and getting back on the path that the 18-year cycle dictates.
The Final Climb: The Path to the 2026 Peak
When asked whether we are still on a trajectory to see property prices rise before seeing the sort of housing price crash we saw in 2008, Harrison responds:
“Yes, but some of the detail is different. One of the essential differences this time is that the surge in the prices is happening in the regions and again this is a consequence of covid – people moved out of London and so they started jacking up the prices of the Cotswolds and the North where they felt secure and where they could get into London for a couple of days in the office and then go back home into the countryside.
So, we're seeing the weakening of prices in London in the sense that they're not going up as fast as one would have expected, but they're going up much faster elsewhere in the UK.”
Despite the recent corrections, Harrison is adamant that the upward trajectory is set to continue. He explains that the market is now heading into its final ascent. He predicts that the peak in land and property prices will occur in 2026 when overconfidence, speculation, and easy money will push prices to unsustainable highs.
Harrison points out a fascinating shift in the market. In previous cycles, the price surges were concentrated in major cities. This time, however, the pandemic's influence caused people to move out of large urban hubs. As a result, prices in London have not risen as fast as in other areas of the UK. The real growth has been in the regions, where prices have been rising much faster. This "patchy" pattern of regional growth is a unique characteristic of this current cycle.
Why Will Prices Continue to Rise?
Harrison explains that governments consistently behave in a predictable manner during this phase of the cycle. They pour more money into property to make it easier for people to buy homes, and they deregulate the financial sector. Ostensibly, these actions are meant to help ordinary people, but in reality, they make the entire system "more vulnerable and fragile".
Lenders are already being allowed to offer first-time buyers the opportunity to borrow up to six times their income, and politicians won't want to risk alienating potential homeowners by taking measures that could cool the market. According to Harrison, all of this will fuel the final surge, with the market reaching its new peak in late 2026.
The 2027 Collapse: Why This Time Is Different
When asked how this current cycle will end, Harrison responded:
“The end of this cycle is going to be different from all the previous ones in that so many other things will come into play. We're talking about a global cycle rather than individual countries having the land value cycle and the economic crisis that will result from the current land cycle will feed into so many other things of existential consequence.”
While Harrison's prediction of a crash is consistent with his theory, his explanation for why it will happen and what it will look like is far from business as usual. He believes the end of this cycle will be different because it will be a global cycle, not just a national one. The collapse will not be a singular event, but a convergence of multiple, interconnected "existential crises".
Harrison details three key crises that will converge with the economic downturn:
The Environmental Crisis: Harrison argues that as the economic crisis takes hold, governments will inevitably cut spending on environmental issues, which are often seen as "fringe things." This will lead to the worsening of the global environmental crisis, which in turn will create more economic instability.
Geopolitical Conflicts: He points to the potential for geopolitical instability, citing a possible conflict between China and Taiwan. He suggests that such conflicts could be used for nationalistic reasons to maintain control over populations, but would have catastrophic effects on the global supply chain and economy.
Political Paralysis: This is perhaps Harrison's most unsettling prediction. In 2008, governments bailed out the banks because they were "too big to fail." In 2027, Harrison predicts governments themselves will be "too big to fail", but there will be no one to bail them out, leading to widespread chaos and paralysis. This will lead to the rise of more autocratic governments because the people will be dissatisfied with unemployment levels and the general worsening of living conditions.
He sees a future where the property crash and these other crises are happening simultaneously, feeding off each other in a destructive feedback loop. In the interview, he explains that the chaos will be blamed on everything from political figures to "fringe things", but the real cause is the land pricing system itself. The system, Harrison says, has created the environmental crisis and the political turmoil because it is fundamentally unjust.
Conclusion: Watch This Space…
Fred Harrison's analysis is a sobering one. It's not just a forecast for property prices; it's a profound critique of our economic and political systems. He believes that the root of our problems lies in the way we view and tax land, and that the coming crash will be the final and most painful lesson of this cycle.
For those looking to buy or sell a house, the message is clear: the cycle is not broken. It is simply on a more treacherous path than we have ever seen. Harrison's theory gives us a powerful framework for understanding market timing and avoiding the pitfalls of a bubble.
While he predicts a peak in 2026, he also warns that the downturn, when it comes, will be a chaotic and unpredictable event, unlike any we have faced before. It is a time for caution, for strategic planning, and for understanding that the biggest risks are not just in the market, but in the convergence of global crises that the cycle's rhythm has been predicting all along.
The 18-Year Property Cycle is a theory that has predicted a housing price crash correctly on two occasions in the past. If the theory holds true, it is predicting that the next housing crash will occur in 2027 and will be a big one!
Whether this prediction comes true, or this time truly is different, remains a question which will only be proven in time.
As always, it’s essential to do your own research before making any major decisions. Keep your eyes on the market and stay prepared for whatever the 18-year cycle has in store.
